For the first time in almost half a century, the UK has experienced more deaths than births, marking a significant demographic shift, as reported by The Guardian.
Excluding the spike in deaths during the Covid-19 pandemic, figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show a widening gap between funerals and baby celebrations, largely driven by declining fertility rates and the aging baby boomer generation.
In the year leading up to mid-2023, there were an estimated 16,300 fewer births than deaths in the UK, a trend last seen during the “baby bust” of the 1970s. However, despite this natural decline, the UK’s overall population still grew by 1%, reaching 68,265,209 people, due to a net migration influx of 677,300.
Economists have flagged this imbalance as a stark indicator of the demographic challenges facing Britain. As cities attract more migrants and students, they are aging at a slower pace or even becoming younger, while rural areas are aging more rapidly. This divergence will likely create a policy dilemma for the government, needing to balance increased demand for social care in older regions with calls for more school places in younger urban areas, according to Charlie McCurdy of the Resolution Foundation think tank.
The total fertility rate in England and Wales dropped to 1.49 children per woman in 2022, down from 1.55 in 2021, far below the 2.1 children per woman required to sustain the population, as recommended by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).
Despite the current baby deficit, demographers suggest the trend could reverse in the future. Advances in medical technology and societal shifts towards later-life parenthood may lead to a resurgence in births. Dr Andrea Tilstra, a research fellow at Oxford University’s Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science, told The Guardian:
“Younger generations are postponing their childbearing, and so while fertility rates might be declining, there’s a chance that this could rebound.
That could happen as these cohorts enter into their 30s, maybe even early 40s, and the ability to have children later in one’s life becomes the norm, supported by technology like IVF.”
Scotland has been hit hardest by this trend, recording its largest ever gap between deaths and births. It marks the ninth consecutive year that Scotland has seen more deaths than births, although its population did grow by 43,100, primarily due to immigration. Wales also saw more deaths than births, while both England and Northern Ireland recorded a small surplus of births.
This drop in birth rates is partly attributed to women choosing to have children later, with financial factors such as housing costs often cited. Women born in the 1940s typically had two children before the age of 30, but by the mid-1970s, this had fallen to an average of one child. The trend plateaued before beginning to fall again. For women born in 1993, who turned 30 last year, the average number of children is now just 0.8.
On the other end of the life spectrum, dementia and Alzheimer’s disease have been the leading causes of death in England and Wales since 2015, overtaking heart disease, except for a brief period at the start of the Covid-19 pandemic.
