The UK death rate fell to a record low in 2024, according to exclusive analysis conducted for BBC News.
Mortality experts examining death certificates found that the number of deaths per head of the population returned to pre-pandemic levels, slightly below the previous record set in 2019. However, experts caution that this only reflects a continuation of the long-term trend of slow improvement rather than a significant breakthrough.
The analysis, carried out by the Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) at the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries, highlights a stagnation in mortality improvement over the past five years. “This is five years of basically flat mortality improvement—it’s pretty poor by historical standards,” said Stuart McDonald from the CMI.
The registered death rate in the UK has steadily halved from 1974 to 2011, largely due to advances in tackling heart disease, smoking prevention, and medical improvements. However, from 2011 onwards, the rate of improvement slowed significantly before reversing during the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2022, excess deaths remained high, but in 2024, deaths returned to expected levels, with 989 deaths per 100,000 people—the lowest on record.
Despite this, experts warn that the UK’s post-pandemic recovery has been slower than other comparable countries, such as Spain, which returned to pre-pandemic mortality levels by 2023.
While overall death rates are largely driven by older populations – over three-quarters of UK deaths occur among people aged 70 and above – there has been a “concerning” increase in deaths among younger working-age individuals, particularly those aged 20-44.
Unlike older adults, whose deaths are often linked to chronic diseases, mortality among younger adults is often caused by external factors. Researcher Antonino Polizzi from the Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science at the University of Oxford noted that “external and substance-related causes are most important in this age group, including drug overdoses, alcohol-related deaths, accidents, homicides, and suicides”. Scotland, in particular, has seen an increase in drug-related deaths, contrasting with improvements in other Western European nations.
Researchers point to several contributing factors to the slowdown in mortality improvements since 2011. Some of the biggest gains in reducing deaths from heart disease and cancer, such as cutting smoking rates, had already been achieved, making further progress more difficult. At the same time, new risk factors have emerged, including rising obesity levels, poor diet, and low physical activity, alongside growing social inequality and pressure on the NHS.
Some academics argue that austerity measures following the 2008 financial crash weakened public services, contributing to the stagnation in life expectancy, though this remains a debated topic.
Dementia and Alzheimer’s disease remain the leading causes of death in England and Wales, followed by heart disease, lung disease, strokes, and lung cancer. In some years, flu has also played a major role.
Professor Bryan Williams OBE, Chief Scientific and Medical Officer at the British Heart Foundation, emphasised that “cardiovascular disease remains a leading killer in the UK”. He warned that the slowdown in reducing deaths from these conditions is “a serious cause for concern, made worse by the impact of the pandemic on an already overstretched health service”.
Early deaths from cardiovascular disease have also risen in the most deprived areas of England, prompting calls for urgent government action to improve prevention, detection, and treatment.
The CMI calculated the 2024 death rate using weekly provisional death registration data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) for England and Wales, National Records of Scotland, and the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency. The age-standardised rate allows for accurate year-to-year comparisons despite the UK’s aging population.
While the record-low death rate in 2024 is good news, experts stress that the UK’s overall progress in reducing mortality has stalled.
