Demographic trends suggest households where the oldest economically active or inactive person (household reference person, or HRP) is aged 65 or older are set to grow at nearly twice the rate of household where the HRP is under 65 according to data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
The numbers are based on demographic trends rather than the number of homes being built and show that in total, the number of households in the UK will increase from 23.5 million in 2022 to 25.9 million in 2032.
From 2022 to 2032, the number of households with an HRP aged between 65 and 74 years is projected to increase from 3.3 million to 4.0 million; and the number of households where the HRP is aged 85 years and over is projected to increase the most, by 42.3%, reaching 1.5 million by 2032.
Although households with an HRP aged 35-64 make up the largest majority of households in the data, the growth is coming from those aged 65 and over. Indeed households with an HRP aged 85 years and over account for 18.7% of the total growth in households between 2022 and 2032.
The statistics follow on from wider ONS data which shows the population of 65-74 is projected to increase by 20%; by 16% for those aged 75 to 84 years. Over a quarter (27.7%) of all household growth is projected to come from 65-74 year olds. By comparison households with an HRP under the age of 65 years are projected to increase by 5.3%.
The fastest increase is projected to be seen in households in which the eldest HRP is aged 85 or over, increasing by by 42.3% from 1.1 million in 2022 to 1.5 million in 2032. Almost two thirds (280,000) of the additional households in this age group are projected to be people living alone.
One-person households in all age groups are also expected to increase, up by 19.6% by 2032. The only age group in which the number of households is expected to decrease is those in which the HRP is aged between 55 and 64, with projections showing a 2.2% decline over the same period.
Households with children are also expected to decrease, down by 8.4% by 2032, from 6.7 million to 6.1 million.
‘The growth in the number of one-person households and other households with two or more adults is driven by both an increase in population at older ages as a result of an ageing population and also a projected decline in future numbers of children’, the ONS said. The aging population has been widely acknowledged in the so-called Great Wealth Transfer; the largest transfer of generational assets in history.
Commenting on the data, ONS head of population and household projections James Robards said:
“We project the formation of more than two million additional households in the decade to 2032. The majority of this growth is likely to be in older age groups, with an increasing number of people living alone. Meanwhile, the number of households with children is projected to fall over the same period. This is in line with current and future projected levels of fertility.
“These projections are not a prediction or forecast of how many houses should be built in the future. Instead, they show how many additional households would form if assumptions based on previous demographic trends in population growth and household formation were to be realised. At the local level, household change is influenced by economic development and housing policies, factors that are not included in these projections.”
All projections, including interactive tools to project change by local authority, are available at https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/bulletins/householdprojectionsforengland/2022based
